I Have been to the mountain top.....

.....and I can see into the valley

....http://tinyurl.com/5fr9u This ratio as a tool for timing is not so good as you don't know how low or high it will go until it REVERSES.WHat do have is 10 years of data (limit of my chart) to look BACK on to make "observations".WHat I observe is that during the BEST of the GREAT BULL MKT this ratio stayed at or BELOW the median range, hardly going above 60 (McHUgh posts that 68 is "crash levels")....until late 1999 into 2000 a reading of 80 then 91 was seen...it was over.After several spikes of fear and doom....the ratio plunged to low 20's, once after 911 which helped spur a long multi month rally, then twice more in late 2002 and early 2003 (bottom of last bear market to date).The reading now stands at above 92 the highest reading ever recorded. This ratio and the VIX tell the true story of how much fear and greed is in market, IMHO WHen anything gets to very extreme readings IMHO it should be taken seriously, especially when its relationship to market action is so well documented.The top in 2000 was painful to predict for Bears, so is this one, to millions who stayed long unaware of any portending problems....even more painful.We have TRansports at 6 yr highs, only 2 reading ever higher!We have Dow STILL below its 2004 high! We have NAZ 60% below highs of 2000, SPX 20% below.Now you might say look how far they can rally. But a market diverging is not healthy.....and when you consider some readings like 10 sentiment readings are at historical highs, and so is the SPX/VIX ratio.....but we remain well below their index highs.....should bring alarm.Lots of things could happen to keep it going....low rates.....seasonality, year ending in FIVE (no rational reason), potential influx of year end contributions, wall street managers HUMPING it higher for better bonuses.....funds piling into the good performers to make them look better....etc.YET, I get the profound feeling ALL IS NOT RIGHT. MY company acct., has a diverse list of clients, most of which are struggling or breaking even.I see 6 of LAST 7 LEI readings DECLINED!? I see TOPPED out COnsumer Sentiment readings.I see MORE capacity and LOWER capacity utilizations (in chips esp.)I see NO gains in Help Wanted Index.I see NO wage growth and NO savings.I see NO end to deficits and trade imbalances.I see pressure on FED to continue RAISING interest rates, this will hit hard those on revolving credit....a rising rate environment not usually condusive to rising stock prices.UNLIKE before, when we slow down, housing prices may collapse....and housing is where most have stashed their wealth....and is most ILLiquid.Inflation, weaker dollar, rising gold to 16 yr highs......soaring deficits...etc....have NOT caused a significant rise in longer term rates??!!This can ONLY be the case of CHINA and JAPAN stepping in??Again...most trades...derivitives have to unwound at some time.Historical highs in gold bulls and euro and lows for dollar bulls.....the stuff of trend reversals...IMHO, for near term only a shocking rise in rates....fall in dollar....or Terrorist action will derail this cyclical bull.What is obvious is the stats I listed on bullishness....what is not is how high those readings will go until they reverse.....and what will JOG investors out of their complacency....irregardless of the "side bets"....money laying long hasn't felt this good since....I don;t know...1999?If a K-WAVE really exists other than in the minds of its creator and those who interpret it.....a LASTING TOP in credit expansion is quickly nearing an end....those who follow and believe in the K know what MUST come next.....illiminate debt and speculation...Too much triptifan....making me grouchy! LOL