Musical Chairs

As I sit here posting, I am also searching for the vision I NEED to survive, to prosper in this most difficult, IMHO market.
4 more years of BUsh, 4 more years of what? Will the money supply be continually ramped up? (look for report dueout tomorrow for a clue, has been FLAT for 3 months, was up $20 Blast week, down $80 Billion prior 2 weeks.....Interest rates? Today not much change? Am I the only one finding that strange? In fact rates have fallen during this recent splurge...WHYwould Bonds be strong, in a rising market based on I assume good times ahead?
The one holdout to yeehaa times is the bond market? What does it see? or WHO is holding them down?In a rising tide market, why wouldn't other assets especially BONDS be sold and that put into equities?
JOBS REPORT tommorrow, hell I don't know what it will be, a miss or ahuge upside surprise...an upside surprise of oodles of jobs (even if seasonally and death birth adjusted reality) would surely throwmarket into a FRENZY?The market is not in any shape to accept any kind of UGLYnews.....the market as been rising on sniffing glue....no more worries, we have BUsh....the big corporations have BUsh....bigtobacco and asbestos claim companies have BUsh (MO up bigtoday).......financials have BUsh.....load the truck up....big pappyis here for 4 more years...NO worries.OIL is dropping....no more worries.....but the market never caresabout high oil, and rising oil mirrors rising stocks....especially ifthere is demand for energy to produce.But we don't produce much, but Transports are now close to 1998 highs.RSI on the daily for all indexes breaking above 70 and near termoverbougt, the Trannies weekly above 70 and VERY overbought. SO maybe it gets very very overbought, but a substantial trannie high appears near, IMHO....if so, do the other indexes head higher withoutit?NOT likely as it has led all indexes....watch the TRAN closely.LOTS of Gov.spending right? Bush got our back.....GOV spending hassupported our economy....well it's OUR money they are spending.
CAN the GOV keep IGNORING the deficit and stimulate the economy,doall the things it promised during the campaign....and not worry aboutcontrolling spending?WHat are the realities we face going into 2005? Could end to election worry BOOST consumer confidence to giveretailers huge Xmas?LOOK to JOB report tomorrow for some clue.Our economy seems strong, but it is not the good strong...where capital investment and then depreciation and savings are inplay....no it is consumption/debt and no savings and littleinvestment, you NEED savings for investment.ONE month during this recovery where 300,000 jobs were created...BYANY MEASURE we STILL are MIRED in the WEAKEST recovery from ANYrecession.(jobs,factory capacity,help wanted index, money velocityand more)And I worry about the levels of debt in all sectors of ourcountry....I HARP about the total credit market debt as % of GDP, andit really does not matter what majes it up, it is above any historichigh, yes above the one in 1930.What this symbolizes is the TOP of the credit expansion cycle....wellit has already topped any previous...so I cannot say it has toppeduntil it begins to decline....watch money supply figures....it at least tells me we are near an end in that area.
A PHASE of contraction would begin and so would our economy, theworlds economy.I fail to understand why globalization is so good when you LOSE a job paying $40K plus in manufacturing to a person in CHina making $3 aday? or is that $3 a week? NO HEALTH CARE, NO SS, NO Medicaid.....no environemntal concerns?The rise in housing prices from manipulated historic lows in intrates have fueled our economy......what JUICE should we expect leftin that lemmon?
We KNOW stock market is ponzi scheme, so it is unsafe to play when valuations no longer matter.NO, it's NOT safe to SHORT,but buying and holding equities without abear market bottom in place, though no it seems a silly notion, canonly bring pain.Sure you find a stock here and there of interest worth a shot....butputting in 60% of your cash seems foolish to me.The majority of the stimulus and incentive to buy forward ends thisyear.At some point the cheering will stop, the music will slow and thenstop, and investors will be forced to see who they brought to the
dance....who the last one left in the bar really looks like.A PANIC seems so far from any real possibility...and I hope itis....but never rule it out...just because you don;t know where or what it is or when it might occur...or why.
D