A RATIO Worth Watching

http://tinyurl.com/6peaj

ABove ratio correctly called the MArch 2003 bottom, and you can see the 50 SMA crossover up through the 200 SMA (simple moving avg).

And the current reading has come from an area where PAST TOPS have been, it has been as high as 90 and is now consolidating here.

IMHO, we can call a near term top in this market with "some" degree of confidence, when we get a DECISIVE break of the 50 SMA BELOW the 200 SMA.

WHat this will reflect would be a falling market and a rise in volatility, perhaps reflecting a more defensive posture especially by the options writers.

For now that is uncertain, but at least we are honing in on a few things that will help us determine market direction and risk. Stay tuned.

AT this point, MOST are positioned for market rise this time of year. If one sided enough, the COntrarian position like has been taken by Commercial traders on gold and the dollar could be the correct one.

Duratek