Wednesday, November 10, 2004

PFE News and Trade Deficit News

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/biotech/10193568.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2004/11/10/cx_ab_1110video1.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=

Yes Trade deficit may have lessened due to rise in exports led by dollar weakness (making OUR goods cheaper), HOWEVER (can't I just take good news? LOL) this is not much improvement in deficit which is still near RECORD numbers.

Any further sharp declines in dollar could lead to a SPIKE in interest rates.

FED meets today and is expected to increase interest rates by predicted 25 basis points, the rate given to Banks. Carry trade play basically wiped out here. Not sure which side of coin HEDGE FUNDS are on as they were record long rates early summer and could have been hurt by any sharp rise in long term rates.

During this economic rebound, the FED telegraphed they would HOLD DOWN rates, and the carry trade PILED ON long bond positions, which helped reduce long term rates.

At some point you would assume they would unwind those positions.

Duratek

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