Friday, November 05, 2004

Late night market thoughts

SUre it's late! LOL A quick note as I share my thoughts.It appears PFE is next over Celebrex, I saw a blurb ticker that Canadians have started a class action law suit

UPDATE 1-Pfizer faces Canadian suit over drug Celebrex Fri Nov 5, 2004 01:56 PM ET(Adds Pfizer providing data, Canadian government being sued, stockprice, paragraphs 6-11)OTTAWA, Nov 5 (Reuters) - A Canadian class-action lawsuit has beenlaunched against Pfizer Inc. (PFE.N: Quote, Profile, Research)alleging that its arthritis drug Celebrex caused cardiovascular side effects, the law firm launching the suit said on Friday.

FNM, AIG, MRK, SGU and many more have bitten the dust HARD....justice comes SWIFT and HARSH when dissapointments surface.I have not read FRI EWT update, I will share anything worthwhile whenI can.Don't be afraid to share any BULLISH thoughts here, we are better offif there is broad views shared...but don;t force yourself! LOL Don't ask me to put on my bull hat if no one else wants it....I am sure I can be good at it.

CPC has fallen like a meteor during this rise, so I don;t think there can be an argument for DISBELIEF from any Bears still alive andmoving around.That and the 13 VIX reading....and the plummeting TRIN......and the TRIN might be close to some kind of BEWARE signal?ALL amazing stuff, very emotional....no selling yet into face of VERYoverbought readings....almost across the board....I WANT good for goodness sake....I want a SOUND economy that I KNOW is sound not one I only wish it was....and in business I know how tosurvive....but of course I prefer wish desire good times...happytimes....sound economic times.

DID this economy CURE itself?DID this economy rid itself of the mal adjustments from prior periodor did we HEAP more upon it?AREN'T WEE between a rock and a hard place NOT a sweet spot ofinterest rates and the dollar and the NEED for the FED to keepraising short term rates?I saw blurb 48 month car loans now above 6%....have rates come down on credit cards?

DO we have savings to fall back on? If savings is near record low orbasically ZERO %.....and DEBT is alltime highs as % of everythingdisposable income GDP etc......ARE WE HEALED, and READY for takeoffto somewhere blue? without care ?Where are we in CYCLE of credit expansion? How much further can wetake it?SHOULD DOLLAR weaken in the face of near zero dollar bulls.....whatwill happen to interest rates then? THEY will skyrocket.WHEN manipulating rates SO lOW for SO LONG the FED has throwneverything out of whack!.....and like a COILED spring, and with nearrecord bond bulls.....and with ILLUSION of a strong job creatingeconomy.....rates have LOTS of room to move higher, IMHO

We have come to this place.....where the heart wants to behappy......believe a new beginning is here, a new expansion.But I am sorry try as I might, against this sea of bullish emotionthis rip tide....the FUNDAMENTALS are not here, and they never were.Where is the edge we are getting to be creating these so-called jobs?or are they again a fiction story....of adjustments...guesses?
I see SBC is laying off 10,000 workers by end of 2005.

IS depending on GOV spending a judicous use of funds....isn't thebang for the buck rather pitiful when government spends our money?Isn;t it Conservative politics to CUT spending? controlgovernment?..but under BUSH ADM it has grown like a hungry beast?....and there are NO spending cuts.

The reality is PRESSURE to interest rates should be coming from theburdon of debt in the private sector and the GOV deficits?IF necessary, what is it that stimulates the economy from here, doesanyone believe it's on auto pilot now?Take away 70,000 FLA workers (temp help to rebuild from disasters)and the 98,000 PART TIMERS....and the number today of sustainable FULL TIME workers in the BIG number comes down to size.....asmanufacturing STILL lost some jobs!!! does this all sound right toyou?....did you buy what THEY were selling you?

WHAT happened in OCT that didn;t happen in the last 36 months!!????THEY are selling this hard....but it will all get sorted out.BUSINESSES cant afford NEW WORKERS...I KNOW! I can't afford to hireanyone!MY expenses have skyrocketed...I see lots of dry cleaners and Chinese take outs opening up.....I see a NEW HUMMER dealership going up, those big taxdeductable....sensable cars.Americans don;t buy sensable cars....

Chinese raise interest rates. Russians sign KYOTO treaty....Russiansdon;t have free press anymore....under Putin, they STILL supplyNUclear know how to Iran.....Putin is our Friend!..been down to theranch...helped chop some wood.....

Only safe place for returns is the stock market right?The values are there? Doesn't the argument for higher PE ratios goMUTE because NOW we are in environment of RISING rates......isn;tthat right? The "FED" model is pure BS.....Does themarket like rising rates? does it like inflation? (see gold price) does it like deflation?

I hear a lot about (we always do)..."the money on the SIDELINES"....going to come into market....tired of just sitting around...SAFE>I do not know if bullish momentum is going to fizzle....I really don;t know.....why don't I just stop worrying.....and buy like everyone else.....do I need more reason to buy then justknowing..."stocks are going up" with or without you.

Was it sane in 1998? or early 1999...(see google dropping likestone).....so this can last as long as it wants to....as it can find willing buyers to pay more than yesterday....I don;t know.I read one poster saying...."many here (there)like to go on andon....keep it simple, it;s real simple".....I am who I am and I write like I write....if he was talking to me then....from the looks ofthis post.....

Duratek....now I can sleep (but will I be counting sheep, bulls or bears??)

No comments: