Wednesday, June 01, 2005

BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS?

The markets soared when Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher said the central bank is "getting closer" to the end of its interest rate-tightening campaign. Speaking on CNBC, Fisher said he expects another quarter-point increase at the next meeting, after which, "we'll see."
The Fed has raised rates eight straight times, most recently adding a quarter-point to push fed funds to 3% on May 3.
"I'm surprised he said the Fed is close to the end of the cycle," said Tim Heekin, head of stock trading with Thomas Weisel Partners. "We've enjoyed these historically low rates for a while. It just seems to me that we have easily another 30% to 50% to go without stifling economic growth."
Fisher's comments had an immediate impact on the fed funds futures market, where odds for a quarter-point hike at the FOMC's Aug. 9 meeting fell to 70% from 89% earlier today. A quarter-point increase at the June 30 meeting remains fully priced in, while market odds for a third hike at the Sept. 20 meeting went from 24% to 0%.
Stocks also were helped Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, which came in at 51.4 for May, slightly below expectations of 52. The prices-paid component lost 13 points to 58. Stock and bond investors see the numbers as supporting interest rate doves at the Fed, although the numbers also could be read as bearish for future profits.

**IMHO the last sentence SAYS IT ALL, buying in here will lead to pain IMHO

D

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