Wednesday, October 28, 2009

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST


What happens tomorrow after GDP report could be telling, so far NO response for the repeated barage of selling recently from the bull side...
CRAP I don't know what it will be, like GS reveals their guess 2.7% (WOOOF) when 3.0 is expected.... or will it be higher and this was ploy to lure in shorts? ONLY ST maybe...I think the ShEEBANG is broken.
You do notice I aksed some of the bullish BENT to come back here and tell me when they sell....they haven't and won't and will NEVER LEARN....will hold ALL THE WAY and then blame someone else. who knows if they were EVER long either?....and who cares...
I'm here for those who wont BS me, well I'm here to share my opinion, there is NO reason for you to just agree, I love a debate, I LOVE it when you takes from here and there and use it for yourself....these days you have to figure stuff out in a very complicated world and mostly all you get is PURE BS>
I repeatedly have said I'm not in the business to call THE TOP, you never know til much later, BUT we have had warning signs, we had indexes approaching significant FIB retraces, we have had fundamental reasons too to be wary, very wary.
When the fundamental reasoning given for bullishness don't macth the reality of it, the market will eventually show its hand.
IS the recent market weakness for real, well of course it is, AND TO ME MY WORK, when the SPX, DOW and TRANS break out of these potentially BEARISH WEDGES I have shown....and we approach significant resistance and after a 60% rally....well my friends it didnt seem to me the best place to chase MOMO
And I said when MOMO slows or dies....the door will be VERY NARROW to escape...IMHO
IF all we have witnessed was one big circle jerk BS PONZI SCHEME used with OUR BAILOUT CASH...the chance exists the ENTIRE rally can be revoked....gone.....and we may have began that ugly journey.
Notice recent $ strength.....we already had a mad frenzy bullish % number.....most NOTED BEARS TURNED TAIL AND SWITCHED TEAMS>>>>>> so why did I stay the course right or wrong? The way I view from my knowledge base, and my OWN TA....I just didnt agree...that's it....I dont give a shit who they are/were....I know I have to do what I think is best, come to my own conclusion.
Now me personally, again you do what you think you should do, I TOOK PROFITS INTO THE CLOSE, again I will be upfront in what I do.......I had again reached my objective with that trade, so do I let it ride and risk a GDPpity party? NO....I am on road of PATIENCE, GOAL SETTING, WINNING TRADES, SMALL LOSSES ON BAD TRADES, TRADING AS BEST I CAN WITHOUT EMOTION.....not second guessing, not changing priorities when goal is reached.....continue winning and moving forward, leave greed at door....trust TA
My VIX overlay chart shows price decline halted near peaks in VIX....I think some pity rebound is coming....so if correct that will set me up again....and it may be short.....I dont have crystal ball to know tomorrow GDP report and what mkt says..I do know ST oversold.
I talk to lots of smart people, and my game plan is to build a core position I leave alone......so its there if right on BIG MOVE it doesn't react to short blips of counter trend. Then with other piece I go in and out of mkt doing best to time moves.
I have a system that seems to be working pretty well, I have been DISCIPLINED and with stop loss in right place, stay in trades, and come out without BIG HIT....that's my game plan.
No I cannot in repsct for my SUBS I use for commentary and some offer proprietary data.....so I wont mention a name or terms, but what I can say is I have been watching divergences build within the data telling me something was wrong......even if SUB did not say so.
I also notice how some data that was price wise near the HIGHS for move....was near the LOWS in MArch!
We have witnessed lithe volume on the rise, we see MACD lower peaks multiple ones..finally maybe they meant something....but my friends as BEST as I can tell....from what I SEE and from what I READ....from whomever....this rally from March does not fit any prior BULL MKT....argue well but it is a bull mkt, you go ahead....I just don't agreee...and IF IM right....bear rally do end, and not very well.
So maybe a "CHANCE" for a pity POP rebound....maybe if nothing else after recent selling it doesn't seem like there will be one....GDP I THINK would need to be CLOSE to what is expected....to continue this game of smoke and mirrors being perpetrated on the masses...the continuing lie and selling out of Americans by their leaders and the FED fiasco....being foisted on every living creature for the betterment of what we now call the Dirt Rotten Scoundrals of the Banking world....the I GOT BIGGER THAN BEFORE HA HA ON YOUR DOUGH IN YOUR FACE BAIL OUT KINGS NOW TOO TOO BIGGER TO FAIL
Duratek

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Duratek,

You may finally get your wish and see the market fall. I think there are good some opportunities now on the short side. I agree with you assessment on the economy. I would still be careful on the short side. I don't think the fed and or government will let the markets fall too easily. Be ready for another stimulus.

Anonymous said...

Manute here. The beauty of your blog is you can go back and see what you have been saying for years.You are bearish, a broken clock. True this kept you out of trouble on the downside on some major down action, but the market is a two way street. Just telling everyone it is bad all the time, what good is that? You beeen calling for a dollar rally for months.A top for months. Been wrong for months. The charts are on your site. Failed wedges that never worked. And to say one of the top money managers, Bill Gross must read your blog, come on. It is nice you get some down side, but you are a bearish bear, that finaly got some down action, and use it to say you are right, after 8 months and 65% of being wrong. Enjoy your time, I do agree with Gross, the risk out weighs reward at this point. Next time we get really pushed lower, let's see if you see the long trade through the bearish keyboard pushing frenzy.

Duratek said...

Hmmmm, a new repentant Manute, I like the NEW MAnute. You obfuscate my blog history....you must first understand we are in SECULAR BEAR and stocks prices are below their value from 10 YEARS AGO....so if you say
"I've been bearish a long time, broken record" thank you for the compliment! if you factor in a US $ index at 120.00 in 2001 boy this rally is put in perspective.

You CAN stay Bearish TOO long, and YES I hope to feel the bottom and get long. I have already explained my personal issues that had me OUT in MArch, I had signals, I chose to ignore them....I hide nothing.

I thnk helping people miss 2 HORRIBLE BEARS outweighs not telling people to LOAD UP IN 2003 or again in MArch....the market is teacher, we are the students, and you are constantly learning from the market...why I ennjoy it.

I dont "WANT a decline"
it is what it is. In 1990's I ws LONG ALL KINDS OF STUFF incl EMC from $13.50...it turned out to be after splits BEST performing tech stock...I bought on day the mkt didnt like earnings it fell from $20's and I thought over reaction and pounced 500 shares...at its high that was worth a cool $250K.

March was an incredable opp to go long....I think easy money been made...I dont see 14,000 DOW anytime soon unless all the things Ive been talking about begin to improve.

The first wedge I posted failed to upside...lesson there if short cover...but I WAIT until hand is shown...it broke up I wouldn't short, maybe go long.

Now 3 bearish wedges I posted have broken DOWN...I am wrong there?

You still reading RR? What is he saying a man of 85 or so? He still have BULL on his site?? I'd like to know....

Have I been TOO bearish at times, YES I have....and if I backed that up with a short...better have stop loss...if long I would use stop loss too...and should have in MArch....with my BIZ hurting big time, I couldnt afford to be wrong so I had to ignore one of my models signals.

You're a smart guy, you should be able to see thru the haze of CNBC tripe....MUCH MUCH more needs to be done...housing charts I just posted speak volumes on that one subject alone.

I've had 2 BIG winning trades, one miniscule loss (because of my stop) all 3 were shorts. I posted last night I covered at close...so I am now neutral....but looking to get short again.

anyway, GL with whatever you are doing......use me as an alter ego and if disagree take OTHER SIDE.