Tuesday, October 27, 2009

STICK A FORK IN IT?

Well do you like your meat RARE or WELL DONE? Here is Bill Gross's
most recent essay link here

ANother large gain out of the gate basically neutralized by the close. But for thr TRANSPORTS it was another story breaking down another 1.8%. Yesterdays NYSE decline had 88% down volume and go along with prior 2 90% down days and no 90% up days during that stint, it feels like nature of market is changing.

My technical work using a blend of indicators and a moving avgerage just signalled a sell for the Transports or more importantly it has broken down from a line held since MARCH LOWS....nothing is 100%.

Consumer confidence sank again, now understand this, it should be DOUBLE where it is now in a NORMAL RECOVERY BY NOW!!! I would argue that given the 60% stock market V shaped rally cry, boy that doesn't fit.

One of my subs measures of market strength has fallen back to near its lows of March, yet near this rally top.....this isn't something you would expect to see in a "new bull mkt"

Don't fight the FED they say, to some extent the march lows were extreme and enough fear and stim to make some stupendous profits....I just don't think I see anything that warrants LTBH strategy.

Now who doesn't expect a HOT BIG JUICY GDP # Thursday? The problem is the banks are still SICK and credit is contracting.....the market will find fair value in due time. The # to ME doesn't mean JACK....it's mostly make believe anyway...reaction is key...has volatility returned?

D

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