FIBS AND MORE WEEKEND WRAP

AT 1217 high, very close to the .618 fib #. ALSO wedge forming and possible head and shoulders also (dashed lines and arrows).

You know anyone alive during 1930's? 70 plus year cycles do exist, one of EXPANSION....eventually leads to ONE OF CONTRACTION.

A BREAK of lower dashed line IMHO would again be ominous sign of BEAR REIGNITING.

Many think FED policy and Bank Bailouts thwarted a financial meltdown and saved the world....these SAME (no bear no lehman GS competitors....) banks are now even BIGGER....have even MORE control....you see any evidence of behind door goings on becoming more public? who owns what derivitives?

Thursday employment report backing up to 500K claims and 4 wk at 478K....how is ANYONE to come away feeling good about that? GDP revision again next week, most figure this massaged # to drop below 2%.......if in "RECOVERY" why don't the data support that?

Growth can be traced 100% to gov stimulus....there are no 2 feet here standing.....just 2 smart hands foisting bad debt onto the public, and stocks to weak hands....the perverbial BAG HOLDERS....don;t be one of them.

There have been 23 90% volume days since last APRIL!!!! 14 have been downers, 9 uppers....last 2 were down volume days...unprescedented....more down volume days than up in a bull market????

Up days continue pattern which began shortly after 2009 bottom of rally days on low volume and decline days on rising volume....hardly a bullish sign IMHO.

SO I don't buy into MSM calls for "birth of new bull mkt" as I dont see technical and I sure don't see normal economic expansionary data and consumer confidence as one would expect....I can only conclude we are in the grasp of a long term bear market interupted by periodic rallies, when concluded could lead to new lows.....so I suspect March 2009 lows will get tested.

2 years of unemployment benefits....then millions run out, and give up...unemployment stats kept by government are erronius at best, fraudulent at worst.

Interest near historic lows, amount of stimulus already applied, and the health of the $ are all at odds as to what is left in the tool shed to avert disaster....FED rates at 0% already.

Secular trend has baby boomers wanting to unload larger homes, can't do that in this environment......young people are wondering about how smart it is to OWN a home.......others can't get approved, stricter standards for sure. ANother group wants to refi.....but huge number of them cannot because of lowered home values.

Trend is more to save (rate up to 5-6% from zero) maybe back to historical NORM of 10%.

Bear Market bottoms of substance usually see SPX dividend yields avg 6% or better and single digit PE ratios......will that happen again?

We cannot SEE the future, it is hard enough to see the now the trees in the forrest....but we can see the past and hopefully gain some knowledge and raise the odds of doing somethng right VS doing somethng wrong.

Can you live off of Money MKT returns of near 0%? How about holding 10 yr notes for 2.5%? $2,500 TAXABLE income per $100,000.......

Are the 8 MILLIONplus out of jobs since 2007 contributing to 401k'S? How is that mutual fund cash levels looking? 70% of volume churning from HFT black boxes......becoming harder and harder to distinguish reality from fantasy....my spidey senses are on full alert

Duratek