Saturday, September 25, 2010


Great read from John Mauldin guy who coined phrase "muddle through" economy.....but we won't hold that against him.

As we continue through this difficult period, it is my hope all my readers are doing OK. My business experience has been tough, but I'm still alive and kicking, all you can do is continue to fight and stay optimistic. Staying positive does not proclude trying to discuss and understand our current situation.

I will continue with my curretn format, and add addt'l features when I can. Part of me would like to take this to the next level, but I also like this blogger format.....with my intentions an open help others....for now I have no plans to change this



Anonymous said...

Yea. Mauldin is always a good read. As you can see its clear people are cutting back on debt. Since money=debt this would be deflationary. However our insane federal govt is trying its best to stave it off. So you say u wont borrow why they will borrow for you! To the tune of 1.6 trillion a year. Come november when democrats lose some seats things will get interesting. I highly doubt they would be able to get the votes to keep borrowing at these levels. If the federal govt reduces its borrowing the whole ponzi scheme will unravel. Then things will get real deflationary real fast. Perhaps thats what the bond market is pricing in. The stock market is going bonkers in the meanwhile trying toherd as much sheeple as they can before taking them out back to the woodshed.

Good luck with your business. I hope its something that will do well in a depression because thats what we are in now. When people finally realise whats up they will try to cut back as much as possible and for Americans that cutbacks can be quite a lot. I grew up in a third world country so believe me when I tell you Americans can get by on a whole lot less than they are used to now in everything, food, clothes, etc etc

If democrats get more sets and keep control (highly unlikely) that should trash the US dollar and put stagflationary pressures on the economy. They should be able to kick the can down the road a few more years until we have a currency crisis. I dont think that is likely. I think Republicans willbe forced to accept an alliance with tea party candidates and that should bring fiscal sanity to the federal govt. Fiscal sanity would mean depression because our ponzi scheme is based on debt.

Marc R said...

You are obviously well read and intelligent,we are between rock and hard place I think.

The selling pressure on market has melted away, but it rose to near historic levels, so it may be resetting as the problems haven't gone away, just papered over.

I am assuming the 3rd world experience you talk about is not ZImbabwe.

I will not throw good after bad, I have no debt so $'s are supposed to be coveted in a Deflationary environment....I may focus on trading for a living, something hard to put full efforts on now...we'll see.

Best thing for anyone to do is stay positive and understand some thngs out of your the best you can, can't let rest of your life fall apart.

SOLD OUT Americans...might have finally woken up and figured a few things out

Anonymous said...

"You are obviously well read and intelligent,we are between rock and hard place I think."

Thanks. Right now I am in deflation camp as I see money supply and velocity collapsing. So I agree completely about saving dollars. In deflation cash is king.

However I sk you to step back at take a look at the big picture. Where are we headed with troubles in currencies in USA, Europe, Japan, China all at the same time? Bretton Woods 2.0?

In the great depression the dollar was devalued about 60% or so (20 usd to one ounce gold to 35 usd to one ounce gold). In the 70's we took off from the gold standard causing a profound devaluation of the USD over the next few decades. My point is every about 40 yrs or so it seems like we need a new currency or reset of currency. 40 yrs from 1970's will be right around now. This is what is difficult to comprehend. Will the USD be rest in value relative to gold? When do we hit a crisis? 2yrs from now or 10yrs from now? Is it ok to keep my savings in USD?

As you can see from the price of gold I am not the only one worried. Gold is rising in all currencies even the yen. Which does not mean inflation or deflation. Gold is the real money and when people lose trust in fiat money they pile into gold. Gold bugs talk about inflation hedge. Its no such thing. Should I put my savings in gold for now? I dont know the answers to these questions but certainly on my mind a lot.

One thing to keep in mind is in a post bubble contraction gold miners will do well. Gold price goes up and cost of mining (oil) goes down. Next time we have a decent correction I will be getting myself some GDX and GDXJ.