Thursday, September 23, 2010


This is only one way to judge where we are. 60-70 years of credit expansion are not followed by just 3 years of credit contraction...there is new sheriff in town. WE could be in midst of 16 year bear market.....many will be destroyed.
Levels of cash in Mutual Funds avg 3.5% MAJOR BOTTOMS they are closer to 10%. The S&P 500 avg dividend yield is barely 2%....more like 5-6% at MAJOR BOTTOMS.
Valuations were NOT consistent at March lows with prior Bear Market Bottoms. Here we go into what is usually a BRUTAL period for market historically and in just a few short weeks, bulls run amok compared to bears...the August selling now distant memory.
Today we get another look at home sales, this is from prior report posted on
•Total home sales fell 27.2% from 5.260 mln in June to 3.830 mln in July.
•Both the rate of decline and the actual sales level were the worst since records began in 1999.
•The consensus forecast expected sales to fall to "only" 4.72 mln.
Dear Readers.......... the FED'S, Gov's, and BULLS claims we are "in recovery" must be very loosely based on reality

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