10 YEAR DOW CHART REVEALING?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$INDU,uu[w,a]wallyiay[pb200!b400][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9]&pref=G

I am a man who likes to observe, and then contemplate the significance.

WHat I see is 2 paralell trend lines of VERY long term avg the 200 and 400 WK simple. ANd we go back 10 years (and most likely near the beginning of entire bull mkt) we see that this is the first time in at least 10 plus years the 200 WK is merging with the 400 WK. IMHO this is NOT a bullish signal, how could it be?

I also see weakening RSI and MACD in relation to the previous highs, and at most I feel we are topping out in the trading range high.

WHILE the DOW is making some hay, the venerable other Dow Theory component is weakening! near 200 POINTS from its high.

A high by the DOW without the Transports right behind its heels is a bad omen, and could be setting up another non confirmation (strength in move is seen when the 2 indexes move simaltaneous to new highs or lows.)

I did NOT like the steep dropoff in volume today. The McClellan OCSILLATOR in positive ground is not influencing the market as it usually does.

I think the new highs are decieving becuase of how many energy stocks and bond funds it includes.

I will be watching closely to see if now that 10 yrs are over 4% again, will it hold? then a new surge up in interest rates could be coming. But it seems MANY continue to seek out YIELD, there aren't many places to find it and I think too many are chasing yields in any place they can find them...dangerous to be where it so crowded?

SO, what to do? For my liking......I rather wait and see if the TRansports can revive and move up to new highs with/if the dow does.

Failing to do so, IMHO means a trip down to the lows of trading range.

LOW LOW VIX is telling us few are prepared for a steep decline, or feel the need to protect.

SO far...........they've been right. LOW volatility has traders confident, complacent IMHO. The market can and will do anything it usually punishes those least prepared.

WHO suspects the Bear Market could be revived? CONVERGING LONG TERM TREND LINES tell me......the game has changed.

We have traders, everyone else seemingly just along for the ride, not even understanding they may have recouped a GOOD DEAL of the bear mkt losses......then so what?

I would be taking that GIFT, and not looking back.

Duratek