Monday, February 28, 2005

NEW HOME SALES

New home sales (credit to Mr Stompe RR board)

New home sales fell sharply in January to a lower-than-expected annual rate of 1.106 million, disappointment offset in part by an upward revision to December which now shows a 1.218 million rate vs. a prior 1.098 million rate. But weakness was broad in February, including sharp 33% declines in the Northeast and Midwest. Supply of new homes rose a sharp 3.5% in the month to a record 438,000 -- swollen supply may point to lower construction rates ahead. More startling was a sharp 13% fall in the median price of a new home to $199,400. The level is down 4.8% year-on-year. Abundant supply and falling prices make this new home sales report unusually interesting. Indicators earlier this month, including existing home sales and housing starts, showed unusual strength in February. If today's report doesn't prove to be a one-month fluke and other data also begin to erode, it could prove to be the first hint of a housing slowdown that many economists are expecting.

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