Sunday, September 13, 2009

BEAR MARKET HISTORY


http://www.dshort.com/ More wonderful charts found at this website.
AT this point most markets are technically strong and we have not had a serious correction yet to guage if any willing sellers are left to be flushed out or longs with weak hands....after a 50% gain it may be hard to think of the market as a bear....my feeling here is we are somewhere in a SECULAR BEAR MARKET....my main worry about buy the dips would be no test of March lows and SPX DIV YIELD and PE RATIO did not equal those of prior MAJOR BOTTOMS....
We already saw that 2003-2007 the market made new highs (not all indexes) only to fall to new lows. Maybe March will prove to be THE BOTTOM....history shows last similar collapse took 26 years to better previous high....have the imbalances been fixed? I dont think so
WATCH THE US $, as it has weakend I have shown the correlation with the rising mkt.
*revised 8:35
On tap next week (from cnn.com)
"On the economic front, the consumer will remain front and center: Reports are due on inflation, retail sales, housing and jobless claims. These reports are key as investors look for signs that the consumer -- hit by rising joblessness, lost wealth and tighter credit -- is starting to recover.
Consumer spending fuels two-thirds of economic growth. Government stimulus and a period of inventory building are expected to help the economy for the next few quarters, but experts say the U.S. is at risk for a double-dip recession by this time next year if spending doesn't return. "
D

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