CLAIMS JUST LOOK AT THE INCREDABLE IMPROVEMENT!

by: Walter Kurtz August 19, 2009 about: The US consumer credit continues to fall, showing a reduction for a fifth straight month. From CNN: Total consumer borrowing sank a seasonally adjusted $10.3 billion, or 4.9%, to $2.503 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. (contraction of credit does not lead to robust expansion)

WE are STILL at 4 wk moving avg above 550,000 claims, this is still WELL ABOVE the worst in 2001 !!

This is being sold as PROOF of recovery? excuse the bleep out of me, My standards are a bit higher....

Continuing claims actually increased and look at the level it is holding at my goodness folks...if 2001 felt bad imagine how unemployed feel now?

Unlike 2001 we have HUGE UNDEREMPLOYED sector and it is said using U-6 measure it closer to 17%.....includes people working part time who desire full time, and people forced to take jobs of much lesser degree than previous....being paid a lot less.

Understand that almost ALL GOV data goes thru a time machine and gets seasonably adjusted.....whatever that means.

"It is not going to be a pretty picture in 2009," James Chessen, the trade group's chief economist for 18 years, said in an interview. "The dramatic loss of jobs will have a huge impact on the ability of people to meet their debt obligations. This is one of the toughest environments we have ever seen."

Folks, the data I present is done so to put, yes a wonderful rally, in perspective. I do not know how much further it will run, I have posted some potential targets, but IMHO even if was to last for years....we've already seen north of 54% gains.....if are indeed the new ZOMBIE NATION.....because GOV and FED just fed us more of the same elixr as they always have....they can't pick which boat floats.....sooner or later have to deal with real issues, I have shown what Japan has gone thru last 20 years...markey barely 25% of what it was...at top.

Now can a manipulated perception become reality?

that's a good question I cannot answer. If I play long I Like to ADD or begin exposure as price comes down to supportive MA's I use and finds support.....it hasnt done so according to my methods.

There's always some kind of business going on, but for now there just isn't enough of it. And you can only cost cut so far. With employment and housing as it is, can we expect COnsumer to spend our way out of this? And I have shown how loans outstanding have been falling....credit is contracting....and those who SAVE....get nothing for deposits of which if they did get some kind of return couldn't they use THAT INTEREST PAID to SPEND INTO ECONOMY? what's wrong with that?

Not what the powers that be want to promote....more spending in an already maladjusted economy from Consumers trying to repair themselves and stay solvent.....

WHAT KIND of pricing power do companies have? I see the rally, I saw it coming, it is strong as hell....it has taken NO breather....the base is thin and untested.....GL to all...I pray many of you can be made whole....at some point to do that you have to turn it into a number on your ledger....so let it ride? do you if long have exit strategy? or do you just hold no matter what?

Have you raised ANY cash to give yourself some leverage?

D