Friday, September 25, 2009

ROCK IS A HARD PLACE

August Existing Home Sales link to briefing.com
Updated 24-Sep-09 10:31 ET
About this release

Highlights

Existing home sales declined 2.7% to 5.10 million homes in August. The decline follows four consecutive months of increasing sales including a jump of 7.2% in July.

The consensus expected sales to continue rallying in August.

The median home price declined 2.1% month-over-month to $177,700.

NAR will probably attempt to spin this report as positive due a sharp decline in the supply of existing homes (-2.1%) in August.

Key Factors

This report failed to showcase any return to strength in the housing market.

The first time homebuyer tax break is expected to end in November and we expect home sales to drop sharply over the next few months. Since the spring, buyers have been rushing out to close on houses before the tax break expires as 30% of homes were purchased through this program.

Beyond the first time homebuyer, the housing market is extremely unstable.

**Yesterday's decline may have seemed tame as in points lost, but that masked underlying weakness as 88% DOWN VOLUME was registered, why there wasn't a greater point loss? the invisable hand? because there weren't many REAL BUYERS ON THE BID

Ask yourself, credit contracting, outside of stimulus not much going on, if so MUCH rides on recovering housing market, above report does not bode well.

END of month play may go on today, but RIMM laid hairball in AH and fell over $9 a share.

I mean after 50% PLUS RALLY it would be nice to get even some SCANT REAL DATA to justify it.

Well, lastly if you think that it's a good idea to just PRINT money to pay for things, as the FED has been doing, I mean we issue the bonds, we print the money, we buy the bonds?

We add the stimulus, we issue the bonds, we print the money? Maybe you can do this for a few Trillion or so (maket goes up, $ goes down....are you better off?) but what about the coming due $100 TRILLION in UNFUNDED liabilities?

I don't like the thought of this end game.....how transparent can you get? did ZIMBABWE print themselves to prosperity? or is it all an illusion?

D

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Duratek,
You have one of the best financial blogs out there. I think your views on the economy are right on. Your work and insight are much appreciated. Don't think it doesn't go unoticed.

D said...

Thank you for taking the time to let me know your feelings, this is much appreciated. People like yourself give me the incentive to kep going and doing my best to offer something of value.

No one has crystal ball, markets are hard to predict at times, too much doesn't add up for me. We need real change....and some honesty and some answers.

MY gut and charts tells my 8650 might cap this dead cat bounce, maybe maybe not top is in....ST IT I dont know.....I think time is ripe for at least correction of recent move.

3% $ bulls another piece of that puzzle. I amusing 60M chart....it may be incorrect but it has issue near term sell and waiting for my MA cross seems imminent.

Take care