Monday, September 21, 2009

MONDAY CHART PM WRAP "2007 TOP"


Transports and financial unwinding gave me the warning I needed, but in real time it takes time to concede a top is in, one method I use is the 50/200 cross, we currrently are in bull mode as they have crossed up. This will not tell us when it tops nor how far it can go, initially we are look ing at FIB ratios.....the 50% is one of them......many think we'll get there.
If you ask me, this 2007 TOP looks rather benign, THE TOP was not drawn out affair...no clue there. SUbsequent attempts to rally did leave it short each time and we begin to see a pattern of lower highs. ALSO NOTE VIX IN DEC was 22.50.
Can't get in at bottom, can't sell the top (general statement), try and ride sweet spot.....hardest thing probably is staying with the trend, when is enough enough?
As I think we are mashed into a Secular BEAR trend, I see current move as possible cyclical bull,,,,,one that might have further to go.
If anyone is AFRAID FED will spoil party on WEd...didnt show it today.
Duratek

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