Tuesday, September 22, 2009

STRONG GOV RESPONSE TO CREDIT CRUNCH DESTINED TO FAIL

LINK TO SERIES PART 5 by STEVE KEEN "HARD BEING A BEAR" I highly reccomend reading this abstract.

In a nutshell, the GOV/FED response to the CREDIT CRUNCH has been to try and reliquify, put stimulus back into the economy and get back to "normalized" growth whereas we would be creating jobs, demand is stimulated.

It has been shown when this is done to solve a "credit crunch" when DEMAND has declined, the STIMULUS usually perks us back up.

HOWEVER, we haven't even BEGUN to address the true reason as to what is happening. SO the money it was decided (by GS and friends?) was to go mostly directly to the banks instead of to the public sector, maybe the banks FEEL better, but they're sitting on the reserves and lending is declining. In the meantime, very LITTLE stimulus is getting to where it is needed, and most firms in trouble (and empoying workers in THIS COUNTRY!) cannot gain access to funds, and many will fail, and many will lose their jobs.

The source of our CRISIS is a " DEBT GLUT" of which the world in terms of size has NEVER SEEN BEFORE. AND MY FRIENDS to my best ability to grasp the real issues, I don't think we have made much headway in dealing with that issue and have LONG WAY TO GO TO GET TO HISTORICAL NORMS.

En route to the solution proposed to BUSH and now OBAMA from the INSIDE CROWD...self serving bitches, helps them,not us! and so we are wasting precious time and resources as we print ourselves to OBLIVION possibly setting the table for loss of our MOST PRECIOUS STATUS WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY. Why do you think we have been able to get away with it so far without having those lending us revolt and flee our debt? HOW could we issue SO MUCH DEBT and only see 10 yr yields at 3.4%?

IN HISTORICAL perspective we are LIKE MT OLYMPUS in debt now compared to SEA LEVEL of the 1930's DEBT CRISIS.

WHAT in someone's name is our answer to this? KLUNKERS and CASH INDUCEMENTS to take on biggest debt of all homes.....lead a Consumer to purchase but can't make him spend....after near 70 years of credit debt expansion is it finally time for that OTHER CYCLE? credit contraction? HARD to imagine EXPANDING PE multiples for most shares under this phenomenom.

AT $80 SPX profits X 20 (expensive) multiple you could ALMOST see a SPX near 1500-1600...so what I ASK happened in 2007? at the height of its rise.....stocks stopped dead in their tracks....the debt game was coming unraveled.

I think we are back to $20 earnings....hey even if we rise to $50 SPX....X reasonable multiple of 15 that implies a SPX at 750. I am not sure if the SPX 500 even collective earnings that register? I saw one chart maybe under $20? so next qtr they will dbl? WILL THEY COUNT THE BANK EARNINGS? but with fuzzy math/ (no mark to market acct)

It is my belief that we are on a berathing device and once taken off the repsirator of stimulus and manipulation and quantitative easing, the economy will resume it's slow to downward trajectory and all this time we could have been ADDRESSING the REAL PROBLEMS would have been wasted.

And my friends, what happens if we do dip again, what CONFIDENCE would anyone have of current measures to come to the rescue? The money SHOULD HAVE come DIRECTLY to those who needed it most.

My friends, I own a business, retail office furniture, what good does it do me to be SO pessimistic? do you really thnk I LIKE being of bearish sentiment? in the 90's I was UBER BULLISH....because I should have been...until time to get out in 2000, which I DID....luckily or otherwise.

DO YOU really think the AMERICAN CONSUMER can take on UBER DEBT LOADS from their current situation LARGE ENOUGH to impact our economy?

Somehow, someway...the HISTORIC MT OLYMPUS of debt MUST be dealt with....inflating it away would be preferred to default and DEFLATION, but I am unsure this result is possible.

Understand please what WE ALL are up against, an EPIC HISTORIC COLLOSAL TIDAL WAVE TSUNAMI of DEBT, and adding to this is not a solution....and is why IMHO when stimulus is removed, when QE ends.....so "might" this rally....castles made of sand slip into the sea...eventually.

SLeep easy, those who pushed us over the edge will be resting soundly in their mansions and many more will recieve $BILLIONS in bonuses for job well done.

SSEC (Shanghai mkt) is in nasty correction phase off again last night approaching the 20% correction level,beware is forwarned.

GOLD UP SHARPLY..US $ down to 76.11 as I post 9:43......enterring an abys with only 3% $ bulls?...yikes.....things are looking up.....for some things....

LINK " TOP 10 IN DISTRESS

Duratek

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