Thursday, September 24, 2009

THURSDAY AM "YOU CAN RUN BUT YOU CAN'T HIDE"




NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY LINK HERE Better to get our information from the preverbial horses mouth than the BLS ass. There is a good reason the stock market and economy usually don't line up with the LEI data....should change the tital to lagging instead of leading.....or lying.
Futures this AM not showing hand yet, 8:30 we get the ever exciting unemployment data (seasonally adj). China overnight was up 10 pts.
There was some good ooopghh behind yesterdays late day "surprising" (CNBC) selloff.....lots of profits just SITTING THERE.....who will blink first? hey don't worry just let it ride?
Remember we probably going to get a distorted view of real economy whe GDP is devlivered and then get a cavalcade of pasty face white men coming on telling us how great the economy is doing. Inventories are depleted for a good reason, businesses don't expect sales.....but there will be some rebuilding and don't forget klunkers and home credit.....w/o we have no economy.
What the NFBI survey is plainly telling me, is not much for hiring, not much for capital spending.....not much of anything, but prayers.
And if you aren't in one of those LUCKY industries touched by the HAND OF STIMULUS the new G-d of Economy.....you aren't seeing much of anything.
Day after FED is usually played for a move opposite previous days move. SInce MArch we have had SCANT follow through to any days selling including any 90% down days thrown in there....when you have the HAND of stimulus at your back, good call to those who have riden this rally......I only suggest you consider your exit strategy to BOOK YOUR PROFITS if you can them that.....should the cloak of misdirection come away and what is is what is seen.
PLease understand prices are implying blue skies and one helluva recovery is right in front of us. GDP also includes if I am correct stock market performance.
Yesterdays FOMC statement can be fond HERE. We have been told there is no inflation, but what usually happens when the US $ weakens?
Duratek

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