MAJOR BOTTOM? OR TRAP?

BIG CHARTS SPX DATA will show that current SPX DIVIDEND YIELD IS 2.09% there is NO applicable PE ratio !

MAJOR BOTTOMS are made with PE ratio near single digits and SPX dividend yields near 6%. The 2002 lows we only had SPX yields of 3%, PE ratio near 30. March lows did not qualify either using this criteria.

SO as prices can rise, even make new highs, who knows .....this tells me we are within a MASSIVE SECULAR BEAR MARKET TREND, and there is good chance it will be OVER when history repeats.

Global reflation efforts may be successful, as we are 70% Consumer economy, we may be positively effected in a lesser degree, but if you understand what coordinated efforts have been made, you would see the potential of an even BIGGER BUBBLE waiting to be popped.

What does a 3.3% 10 year BOND YIELD TELL YOU? Well it's part of a massive BOND BULL that has lasted 20 plus years....and has helped feed expanding economies with cheap credit....it can be used as flight to safetey.....but this usually occurs during periods of market dislocation....not one of the strongest rallies ever....ponder that.

Maybe Tuesday 15th will come and go like nothing, but it is eerie how so many things have pointed to that time...planetary alignments, Obamma speach, data from Peter Eliades...Coop

And my proprietary MARKET inidcator, which I am gaining confidence in it's ability to call major lows (1987, 2002, and now March 2009) as it hit a double bottom last FEB, it had FALLEN out of a downtrend channel I had drawn since the 2007 top was in ans decline began.

When the fall accelerated it fell thru the channel (another hint of an extreme move) and hit a new low (weekly).

Since the rally began, as fear subsided and price rose, my indicator has made its way BACK IN the downtrend channel and it sits at FRIDAYS CLOSE RIGHT AT THE TOP OF THIS TREND CHANNEL.

I would have to respect the indication should it rise and HOLD ABOVE on a weekly basis.....I would have to argue for higher stock market prices in the future....all IMHO

FOLKS all any market analysis can be is an odds game, and IMHO I go where the odds are greatest for success and set stops so my losses are small....let the winners run....don't stay late to the party.

We will also argue it is VERY HARD to hold LONG in a BULL MKT when a serious correction comes.....all to shake out the longs > SEE 1998 correction, but when over mkt almost doubled into its blowoff 2000 top.

IMHO I think next week MAY go far to tell us what we are in store for, will the upcoming Jewish Holidays forstall any predictions? that's another wild card but they do occur SAT 19th and then MON 28th.

Take care,

D