Wednesday, September 16, 2009

looking for love in all the right places


Another good day for the markets, only the Transports felt left out for the most part. Let's depart from our usual fundamental reasoning and see if we can find a LOGICAL topping area for this rally, and this is one possible interpretation.
Click to enlarge, chart is self explanatory. Most of my trader friends, who don't believe the hype, but do like to take a ride now and again no matter, have been paring back.......some have left the party not wanting to "leave it on the table again" IT'S not a profit until you sell.
Not many signs of MAJOR TOP from this rally, some warning signs creeping in, and the fact only mild breathers taken leave the market open for increased volatility going forward....it is pricing in some major good economic future, IMHO
Looking at MA's TA it's hard to argue...what's the problem dude? Overstaying the party, knowing when enough is enough is a good skill to own....especially IF, IF this is not a beginning of a MAJOR NEW BULL MKT. ANYTHING is possible, well it could be, I have voiced my doubts.
Loking back again at my 2002-2003 study, the bottom had a beautiful back test in 2003, the SPX actually coming close to previous bottom....off she went...not this time NO TEST just V....the DATA doesn't back up a V, but so far we got one.
Short term tresuries should be screaming higher, yet they yield next to nothing....BRAINIAC THE ORACLE NOW FINALLY BUYING (lately his timing sucks) while BILL GROSS the bond king adds heavily to bonds...the most in last 5 years!
If the "people on the sidelines" in cash, mostly in MM;s.....is this the dumb money? or will it turn out to be prudent move even though to this point lots of crow sandwhiches.
Home sales of reg priced homes not doing that great, most after the cheaper foreclosed ones...tax credit running out in NOV.
GOLD is soaring, is the FED risking inflation ? why isnt it reflected in BONDS?
(economic revival)
My nephew just came by talking to me...he works for me.....we're trying to HOLD ON HERE in retail ville office furniture.....it has been BRUTAL....sorry some of my pessimism stems not just from I read and investigate, much of what I share here, some I cannot....but with my own 2 eyes....and ears......I'm sorry folks I dont see it here...when I DO prey g-d I'll tell you.
Game last weekend, NO KC press corps in the press boxes NONE NDADA.....budget cuts...no travel and this is last week.....that's pretty current.
HOW do you see Consumer is back in the box, in the saddle when desire for loans was cut by $200 Billion since JUly?
ALL those idle ships all over the world....did the Recession end in July?
Are all those underwater homes all of a sudden worth what people paid? Yet deliquencies continue to GROW in the credit card world, where most went to buy things as no place left...
BANKS TIGHTENING NOT LOSSENING standards......so credit is CONTRACTING...NOT EXPANDING
DIscussing with some stck friends...Jeff Cooper sees this all is part of a 60 yr cycle began in 1949........2009......
Maybe tomorrow I'll wake up and see I was so wrong, and all kinds of greend shoots are growing out of my ass....for now I see scorched earth and a lot of paper tinder covering it all up
D

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

GS - Goldman Sachs is nearing 200 per share which I have had as my target for the top since May when the counter rally started establishing itself.

The top will be between now and the second week of October. Not much upside left. The decline for the averages will be about 20%.

Once we get into 2010 I expect the horrible fundamentals to overcome the cover-up and the indexes to revisit and break the lows in March.

Once the market does break down in the next month there will be a lot of volatility.

October will be a hallowing of a month.

The word Halloween has been handed down from centuries ago.

The word originated from the days of Atlantis when the continent broke into three separate Islands and began to sink into the Atlantic Ocean.

They coined it the Hallowing. Yes -just like the catastrophe move "The Poseidon Adventure".

But do not fear – The indexes are poised to make all time highs in the next 8 years.

Regarding the death of the US dollar; woefully premature. Look for the US dollar to bottom around 2012. Hint, hint, and accumulate.

Then the world will start to think different and realize that what really is important is self-protection and self-preservation. Who owns National Security better than that but the US Military and Intelligence?

Answer – No one.

And don’t talk to me about Oil; oil is created in the earth’s mantle and does come from the fossil decay of dead animals. The supply is unlimited.