THURS AM POST

Let's start with some news:

*(quick note....I may be warning when others are not....it is lonely here at times....but on Thursday my blog had over 200 visits...the most ever....thank you for reading my views,opinions...I am encouraged and will continue to add content and expand what I focus on)

LONDON (Reuters) - A weakening dollar and robust Chinese economic data sharpened investor appetite for risk on Friday, sending world stocks to fresh 11-month highs.
Investors shrugged off an unexpected downward revision of Japan's second quarter GDP growth, taking their cue instead from data showing a surprise acceleration in Chinese industrial output, retail and production.
The figures also allayed fears that Beijing would rein in its fiscal and monetary policy too aggressive -- a concern that has stalked markets in recent weeks.

Chinese currency is pegged to $ so it makes their exports cheaper.

WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Australian vaccine maker CSL Ltd (CSL.AX) said on Thursday a single dose of its H1N1 swine flu vaccine would protect adults against the virus, which means vaccine supplies can be stretched further than officials had estimated.

One 15 microgram dose of the CSL vaccine, which does not use an immune booster known as an adjuvant, got the desired immune response in 95 percent of the 240 adults tested, the company reported in the New England Journal of Medicine. "The lower dose offered as good protection as the higher dose," Michael Greenburg, CSL influenza specialist, told reporters in Sydney in a briefing on the development.

The results back reports last week from rival vaccine maker Novartis (NOVN.VX) and China's Sinovac (SVA.A), who separately reported their vaccines got protective immune responses in patients with one dose.

*I expect the Bird Flu play to continue, but VERY SPECULATIVE, however I wonder if this time around will more expected cases keep the play going, in the past it was pump and dump so you needed to get in early and sell into volume.....MANY times the HIGH VOLUME day in a speculative play may be your high price too....

OK OK, world markets have responded since March lows in a big way, as does too much GREED end in a top so can too much FEAR produce a bottom. How can you figure out the EXTREMES to be ready to pounce or RUN?

Unfortunately the avg person has NO CHANCE and shouldn't even try....on their own. Finding a good money manager takes the burdon off you, but can you find someone who understands sometimes you mUST RAISE CASH (2000, 2007) and change your portfolio allotments.

In 2000 you sell technology, invest in finacials and gold, oil. In 2007 gold did well again, but most were hit except some bond funds.

What about now? Technicals seem pretty good. But one thing is standing out from the herd and shouting wait a minute. LONG BOND YIELDS 10 yr notes yielding 3.4%.....if we REALLY had world recovery the yields were be rising, NOT FALLING with the mkt rally, money would be FLEEING BONDS and moving INTO STOCKS, in a re-allocation.....that is NOT HAPPENING.

AT some pointm y friends, as is the case in CHINA as well....their data may say one thing...but most data is very suspect and tinkered with including "seasonal adjustments"....

The GOV is 80% of the economy.......as the market has risen 50% we have lost 2.4 MILLION JOBS....not sure this has ever happened before.

I think this rally has been SPECTACULAR, some who have been playing it I know have started to lighten up....

AT some point the market has priced in ALL KINDS OF REAL ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT....it better be so...on the ground? do you see it?

TO me rally aside, technical strength aside....BULLISHNESS HAS RAMPED UP....as only 3% or less remain bullish for U S$.....Bond yields are FALLING and is MUCH LARGER MKT than stocks, WHY the flight to safety?

The VIX is in danger of breaking its weekly support.....bulls thrive on falling volatility...


A BIT MORE: "FIELD OF DREAMS"
"Some things aren't always as advertised. The 2009 Chicago Cubs, my front wheel drive GMC Acadia, most blind dates, and The English Patient are a few things that come to mind in that respect.

Another "thing" that stands out for us is the stock market rally since mid-July.
Entering the week beginning August 31, the S&P 500 had gained 17% since its close on July 10. It was an astounding move for a variety of reasons, the most prominent of which was that it was built on some shaky foundation.
Specifically, it wasn't a rally built on unequivocally good news. Rather, it was forged on news that was unequivocally less bad. This important distinction was evident on two fronts. "

D