Monday, April 11, 2011

UNCOMFORTABLY NUMB

Looking over the weekend landscape, I can't help but notice, and it jumps right out at me how BULLISH (not opinion) it all seems to be in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary....how wrong I could be?

Several polls of Investment managers and Individual Investors show bullishness near the all time highs seen in 2007-2008 era and 2000.....even if not timing tool, that should hold you tight from new contributions. The SPX dividend yield is now solidly under 2% and this is near historic lows.Insider SELLING is near 10 to 1 buying...signs of distribution are high.

Almost 3 years into OFFICIAL Recovery unemployment official or not remains higher than at any prior recovery in history.
Those needing government assistance remain at historical highs. The housing market, which remains the #1 asset (or was) for individual wealth, is mired near the worst climate since the 2009 reaction lows...some in the 50 year plus of data keeping.
When you consider 7 of the last 8 (yes I repeat myself) Recoveries were led by housing....this gives me pause.
When I show you charts of the monetary base, the recent rise from just January is nothing short of jaw dropping spectacular and is near vertical adding some $600 BILLION in just 4 months....this smells of crisis reaction....where none is reported.
EVEN AS INFLATION ROARS, EVEN AS ECB and some countries RAISE RATES...here in this country and our FED continue to PREACH that inflation is transitory and will not be a problem....and when you take out FOOD and ENERGY, well there isn't a problem at all!!!!!!!!!!!

I think there is a DANGEROUS disconnect between what avg people are experiencing and what those in control of our destiny are saying....they are obviously STUPID or LYING.

Duratek

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sheeple are bullish. Or maybe not. HFT computers may be pushing up the indices for all I know. Time to book your profits if you played the rally. We will get a decent entry to buy some more silver gold and miners soon over the next few months. We are in a post bubble contraction. As such the Fed buying bonds or MBS will not help because the money will not reach the average joe. Yes it does reach the big players that use it to bid up asset prices but it is ultimately deflationary as the costs cannot be passed on. 2008 redo? Yep. Even today you can see the Fed is unwilling to admit it is causing rising commodity prices. Dont know which planet that Yellen lady comes from. Its such a joke. Same things going on in other places in a different schedule. Take a look at the Mish article on Australia. About to pop there. Guess to comment what will happen to the banks in Australia? How much you wanna bet they will get bailed out with Australian taxpayer money?

Duratek said...

YOu know the answer to that.
I have some learned intelligent friends, a few continue to point to ECRI and other data? but lately it was about the yields on treasuries rising was bullish and because of "improving economy".

This is what I offered

The economic downturn is pushing the vacancy rate above 50 percent in some communities. Grim future predicted

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf this is historic and has no precedent.

Case of supply and demand. Record debt and supply. Fed bought $500 b in last 4 months....it is impossible to gauge normal in abnormal world.
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